Future development of camera modules

Over the next five years, camera modules will evolve from simple imaging hardware to intelligent sensing front-ends. The core focus will be on four main trends: optical miniaturization, edge AI, multi-sensor fusion, and domestic substitution. The market will be clearly differentiated across four major application scenarios: mobile phones, automotive, security, and industry. The overall market size is projected to increase from approximately 450 billion yuan in 2025 to over 800 billion yuan in 2030.

Folded Optical Path (Periscope/Continuous Zoom): Three-stage folding reduces telephoto lens thickness to 5.8mm, making 10x+ optical zoom standard on high-end models; continuous zoom replaces multiple fixed-focus lenses, resulting in smoother video.

Liquid/Variable Aperture: Liquid lenses are 1.2mm thick with millisecond-level focusing; variable aperture (f/1.4–f/4.0) balances low light and depth of field, becoming mainstream in flagship models by 2027. Wafer-level optics (WLO) + Metasurface: WLO mass production thickness <3mm; Metasurface lenses (0.1mm level) replace traditional lenses, entering consumer electronics in 2028.

Large sensor + High pixel count: 1-inch main camera down to the 3000 yuan price range; 50-200 million pixels become commonplace, stacked CIS improves dynamic range to 140dB+.

Built-in NPU + Integrated ISP: Module integrates 0.5-4 TOPS computing power, local real-time AI noise reduction, scene recognition, and target detection, with a latency of <10ms.

Event-based camera: Captures only pixel brightness changes, eliminating motion blur and reducing power consumption by 90%, suitable for high-speed motion and low-power scenarios.

Privacy computing: Hardware shutter + local AI + data anonymization, meeting GDPR and data security laws, becoming a high-end standard.

Wafer-Level Packaging (WLP) + Chip-on-Board (CoB): Multiple cameras integrated on a single substrate, total thickness <6.5mm, improved yield and reduced cost.

Multi-Sensor Fusion: Pixel-level fusion of camera + LiDAR + millimeter-wave radar + ToF, sensing distance +50%, accuracy to 0.1m.

Under-Display/Hidden: Large-scale commercial use of under-display front cameras, screen-to-body ratio >98%; hole-free design is becoming a trend.

CIS: Will Semiconductor, Galaxycore, and SmartSens are advancing their market share from 31% to 50%+, achieving breakthroughs in high-end large-sensor/stacked designs.

Lens/Motors: Sunny Optical, O-Film, and Q Technology have a global market share >60%, leading in ultra-thin and high-magnification zoom patents.

AI Chips/ISPs: HiSilicon, Horizon Robotics, and Cambricon have mature edge-side solutions, replacing overseas solutions.

Market: Expected market size of RMB 180 billion+ by 2030, with triple-camera and above accounting for 90%+.

Core Features: Balanced focal lengths (wide-angle + ultra-wide-angle + periscope telephoto), 1-inch large sensor + variable aperture + continuous optical zoom, edge AI computational photography, widespread adoption of under-display front cameras.

Opportunities: Periscope modules, liquid lenses, WLO, high-pixel CIS, AI ISP.

Market: Expected market size of RMB 150 billion+ by 2030, 8–12 sensors per vehicle, L3+ penetration rate >30%.

Surround View/Front View: 8MP–12MP, global shutter, HDR140dB, 30g vibration resistance, -40℃~105℃. In-cabin: Standard DMS/OMS, infrared + ToF, fatigue/distraction/gesture recognition.

Electronic exterior rearview mirrors: Regulations implemented, replacing traditional rearview mirrors.

Opportunities: Automotive-grade CIS, high-reliability modules, multi-sensor fusion solutions, domain control collaboration.

Market: 2030 market size of RMB 150 billion+, CAGR 12%+.

Core: 4K/8K + 0.001 lux ultra-low illumination, edge AI (face/license plate/behavior analysis), cloud-edge collaboration, privacy and security.

Opportunities: AI modules, infrared night vision, panoramic stitching, intelligent analysis algorithms.

Industrial vision: High-speed global shutter, high-precision detection, 3D imaging, 2030 market size of RMB 50 billion+. XR / Metaverse: Eye tracking, spatial positioning, low latency and high frame rate, projected market size of 40 billion RMB+ by 2030.

Medical Endoscopes: Ultra-miniature, high resolution, fluorescence imaging, projected market size of 30 billion RMB+ by 2030.

Upstream: CIS (40%+ value share), Lens (20%+), Motor/Drive (10%+), Filter/Packaging (10%+).

Midstream: Module manufacturers are upgrading from assembly to optical design + AI algorithms + system integration; Sunny Optical, O-Film, Q Technology, and Lijing are leading the way.

Downstream: Customization for mobile phone/automotive/security/industrial customers, hardware and software integration, service subscription (AI algorithm upgrades).

Optical Innovation: Periscope, Continuous Zoom, Liquid Lens, WLO, Metasurface.

Edge AI: NPU Integration, ISP+AI Integration, Event Camera, Privacy Computing.

Automotive/Industrial: Automotive-grade, High Reliability, Multi-sensor Fusion, Specialized Modules.

Domestic Substitution: Breakthroughs in high-end CIS, lenses, motors, and AI chips.

Technology Roadmap: Competition between optical and AI technologies, with some technologies being disrupted.

Cost Pressure: High BOM for high-end modules, price wars compressing profits.

Intensified Competition: Vertical integration by giants, narrowing the survival space for small and medium-sized manufacturers.

Compliance: Stricter data security, privacy protection, and automotive-grade certifications.

In the next 5 years, camera modules will be a convergence of optics, semiconductors, and AI, shifting from a "hardware competition" to "experience + intelligence + scenarios." Smartphones will focus on flagship imaging, while automotive/security/industrial applications will be growth engines. Domestic substitution and edge AI will be the biggest beneficiaries.